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Our latest issue of In Focus takes a deep dive into conditions in Canada’s housing market. This was included in a larger Year Ahead publication released earlier today by CIBC’s FICC Strategy, Economics and Equity Research teams....

Our latest In Focus article suggests that lack of robust and dynamic population growth forecast framework is in part responsible for the housing supply shortage as municipalities planned for a smaller increase in population relative to the actual increase.  ...

{EDIT RJ} Ontario is now projecting a $3bn (0.3% GDP) deficit for the outgoing 2023/24 fiscal year, which is modestly wider than expected in last year's budget but not quite as bad as projected in the most recent fiscal update. Spending is tracking higher than initial expectations, thanks in large part to wage settlements, and that higher base also impacts future budget projections. Higher spending, combined with expected weakness on the revenue side as the economy slows, means the deficit is projected to rise to $9.8bn (0.9% GDP) in fiscal 2024/25. While long-term borrowing is expected to be lower than in the outgoing year, that's because the province is increasing short-term funding by $5.0bn, while drawing down $1.0bn from cash. Meanwhile, the province borrowed more than initially planned in fiscal 2023/24 to raise cash holdings which can be used to smooth future borrowing requirements. The $38.2bn in long-term borrowing required for the upcoming fiscal year still represents an increase relative to last year's budget and is also slightly higher than the mid-year update.